[JNV] Israeli threats against Iran / Justice for Iraq conference

[Justice Not Vengeance]

1) Israeli threats against Iran
2) Justice for Iraq conference on Saturday, London


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1) Israeli threats against Iran

Dear friends

This is a short note about the recent sabre-rattling towards Iran.
What is the right way to interpret the Sunday Times report that Bush
has given an "amber light" to an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear
programme (entirely peaceful so far as is known)?

The references below suggest that the current administration (a) has
decided not to strike Iran directly and (b) is very unlikely to
support an Israeli strike. More information will follow about the lack
of solidity to Israeli attack plans.

The full Sunday Times article is at

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4322508.ece

The key paragraphs are these:

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"Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate
attack and tell us when you're ready," the official said. But the
Israelis have also been told that they can expect no help from
American forces and will not be able to use US military bases in Iraq
for logistical support.

Nor is it certain that Bush's amber light would ever turn to green
without irrefutable evidence of lethal Iranian hostility. Tehran's
test launches of medium-range ballistic missiles last week were seen
in Washington as provocative and poorly judged, but both the Pentagon
and the CIA concluded that they did not represent an immediate threat
of attack against Israeli or US targets.

"It's really all down to the Israelis," the Pentagon official added.
"This administration will not attack Iran. This has already been
decided. But the president is really preoccupied with the nuclear
threat against Israel and I know he doesn't believe that anything but
force will deter Iran."

The official added that Israel had not so far presented Bush with a
convincing military proposal. "If there is no solid plan, the amber
will never turn to green," he said.
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The following reports suggest that what is going on is 'signalling' by
both Iran and Israel.

Best wishes

Milan Rai
JNV


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US Says Iran's Missile Tests Do Not Make Conflict More Likely

By Al Pessin
Voice of America, 09 July 2008

Iran's missile tests were accompanied by sharp rhetoric. The chief of
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the country's missile arsenal is
ready to be fired at "any time, quickly and with accuracy," and that
"enemy targets are under surveillance. On Tuesday, another Iranian
official said Israel and U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf would be
targeted if Iran is attacked.

Asked whether those statements and Wednesday's missile tests make a
military confrontation with Iran more likely, Secretary Gates said he
does not think so.

"There is a lot of signaling going on," he said. "But I think
everybody recognizes what the consequences of any kind of a conflict
would be. And I will tell you that this government is working hard to
make sure that the diplomatic and economic approach to dealing with
Iran, and trying to get the Iranian government to change its policies
is the strategy and is the approach that continues to dominate."

http://voanews.com/english/2008-07-09-voa56.cfm


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Iran missile tests seen more as theater

By Ramin Mostaghim and Borzou Daragahi, Special to The LA Times
July 11, 2008

TEHRAN -- A two-day show of force by Iran through the launching of
medium- and long-range test missiles was meant to strike fear in the
hearts of the country's rivals.

Instead, many officials and experts Thursday downplayed the Iranian
war games near the Persian Gulf as more propaganda than peril. News
reports emerged indicating that Tehran doctored a photo of the
launches, and analysts questioned whether the tests revealed any new
Iranian capability to strike Israel or other U.S. allies and interests
in the Middle East.

A U.S. intelligence official said the missile launches appeared to be
in response to recent Israeli military exercises.

"When the Iranians see exercises in the region, this is their way of
saying, 'Look, we have capabilities too,' " said the official, who
spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing intelligence
assessments. "There does seem to be at a minimum a great deal of
signaling going on here. But in terms of dramatic new capabilities
from the Iranians, that hasn't been seen to this point."

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-iran11-2008jul11,0,=
775077.story


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Jitters Over Iran

By Jim Hoagland
Washington Post, Sunday, July 13, 2008; Page B07

As U.S. officials ritualistically repeat when questioned about Iran,
the bombing option may still be on the table. But it has been pushed
beyond reach under almost all circumstances. In its past six months,
the Bush administration has stopped playing into Ahmadinejad's
political need for conflict and tension.

The most significant indication of that change comes from strong U.S.
public and private pressure on Israel to forgo military strikes while
Washington seeks new U.N. economic and travel sanctions against
Tehran.

Neither government will confirm that such pressure was exerted. Bush
hates to say no to Israel, and he and Olmert do not want Iran to think
that it now has a free hand on enrichment. But diplomatic and U.S.
sources describe the pushback by Washington as intense and say it
included indications that the United States would not clear Israeli
bombers through Iraqi airspace or provide other logistical support in
the event of attack now.

Instead, Washington wants the focus kept on expanding financial and
trade restrictions triggered by three U.N. Security Council
resolutions condemning Iran's enrichment program. An interagency
working group headed by the Treasury Department is drafting a plan to
get international insurance companies to withdraw coverage from
Iranian cargo shipments, infrastructure and businesses rather than
face the "reputational risks" of maintaining links with Iran.

Israel sees this as a good first step but expects even greater
pressures to be adopted urgently, Ambassador Sallai Meridor emphasized
to me last week. Asian and Persian Gulf ports "take major risks by
handling Iranian cargo that could contain contraband nuclear-related
items" and must restrict Iranian shipping by air and sea, he said.

"Sanctions on insurance and maritime and air transportation would
raise the cost of Iran's doing business. But effective sanctions on
the import of refined petroleum products could be a game-changer,"
since Iran produces crude oil but lacks refining capacity. The world's
oil companies "should not sell gasoline that is used by Iran's nuclear
scientists and its terror chiefs to drive to 'work,' " Meridor said.

Without such dramatic steps, Meridor fears that Iran could obtain
nuclear bomb-building capabilities by the end of 2009. "Military
action is truly a last resort for Israel," he said. "But time can
quickly run out on all the other resorts."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR200807110=
2546.html


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Ex-IDF generals: Is bellicose Israeli prattle on Iran strike necessary?
By Haaretz Staff and Channel 10

Haaretz.com/Channel 10 daily feature for July 14, 2008.

Israel and Iran's recent displays of their capabilities to strike each
other have contributed to the escalating tensions between the two
enemy states, centered on the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions.

Alongside holding missile tests and air force maneuvers, Israel and
Iran have also been engaging in a war of words.

Some former Israel Defense Forces generals have questioned the wisdom
of Jerusalem's policy towards Iran, citing in particular belligerent
Israeli declarations.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1001995.html


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An Open Letter to Barack Obama on Iran (4 July 2008)

Dear Senator Obama,

We the undersigned may have different views on U.S. foreign policy
with respect to Iran. We all, however, are deeply concerned about the
stories in the press in the past few weeks suggesting that the Bush
administration might be considering a military strike on Iran, that it
might give a green light to such an attack by Israel, or that it might
engage in other acts of war, such as imposing a blockade against Iran.

We welcomed your stand against the war on Iraq in 2002. And we were
encouraged by your early campaign statements emphasizing diplomacy
over military action against Iran. Today, you have an opportunity to
forestall a repeat of the tragic Iraq war. We hope you will use that
opportunity.

We agree with the conclusion of Muhammed ElBaradei, the head of the
International Atomic Energy Agency, that "A military strike ... would
be worse than anything possible. It would turn the region into a
fireball..." A military attack, he said, "will mean that Iran, if it
is not already making nuclear weapons, will launch a crash course to
build nuclear weapons with the blessing of all Iranians, even those in
the West." (Reuters, June 20, 2008.)

We don't know, of course, whether an attack on Iran is in fact being
considered, or if there are serious plans to initiate other acts of
war, such as a blockade of the country. But we call on you to issue a
public statement warning of the grave dangers that any of these
actions would entail, and pointing out how inappropriate and
undemocratic it would be for the Bush administration to undertake
them, or encourage Israel to do so, in its closing months in office.

An attack on Iran would violate the UN Charter's prohibition against
the use or threat of force and the Congress's authority to declare
war. Moreover, the public right to decide should not be foreclosed by
last-minute actions of the Bush administration, which will set U.S.
policy in stone now.

We were heartened by your earlier comments suggesting that an Obama
administration would act on the understanding that genuine security
requires a willingness to talk without preconditions (something Iran
has offered several times to no avail), and that threats and military
action are counterproductive. We hope you will follow through on these
commitments once in office, but also that you will speak out now
against any acts of war by the Bush administration.

Sincerely,

Michael Albert ZNet
John W. Amidon U.S. Veterans for Peace
Phyllis Bennis Institute for Policy Studies
Noam Chomsky Institute Professor (retired), MIT
Ray Close retired CIA Middle East specialist; Veteran Intelligence
Professionals for Sanity
Ariel Dorfman author
Nikki Keddie UCLA (emeritus), historian, Iran specialist
Rabbi Michael Lerner chair, The Network of Spiritual Progressives;
editor, Tikkun mag.
Manning Marable director, Center for Contemporary Black History, Columbia U=
niv.
David McReynolds former chair, War Resisters Internat'l
and others

http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/18096

Sign the letter at

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ObamaIran/


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2) Justice for Iraq conference, London

A day conference
Saturday 19 July, London

Justice for Iraq is a call to action =96 a campaign that demands a
complete policy reversal of those countries who have invaded and
occupied Iraq since 2003. Ending the military occupation remains the
most urgent priority. But Iraq will remain a broken nation without
urgent measures aimed at delivering lasting peace and justice for its
people and healing some of the wounds caused by this disastrous war.

Justice for Iraq will pressure Iraq's occupiers to:

    * withdraw their troops and privatised security forces;
    * restore Iraq's full economic, legal and political sovereignty;
    * dismantle the Green Zone and the other occupation walls;
    * clean up toxic and unexploded weapons of war;
    * release and compensate detainees;
    * assist refugees and displaced persons;
    * help Iraq to relieve dire shortages in food, water, energy and
medical supplies;
    * agree to pay reparations for waging a war of aggression;
    * ensure that war criminals face justice.

These demands do not represent a complete or final list. This campaign
is in the process of emerging and we are reaching out to build a
network of organisations and individuals who share a similar goal.
Join us on 19th July to be a part of debating, building and launching
this campaign.

Speakers confirmed so far:

    * Hans von Sponeck, Former UN humanitarian coordinator for Iraq
    * Haifa Zangana, Iraqi writer and activist
    * Sami Ramadani, Iraqi Democrats Against the Occupation
    * Kamil Mahdi, Senior lecturer in Middle East economics at
University of Exeter
    * Mazin Younis, Iraqi League
    * John McDonnell MP
    * Ewa Jasiewicz, Hand Off Iraqi Oil
    * Greg Muttitt, PLATFORM
    * John Hilary, War on Want
    * Jehangir Jilani, Public Interest Lawyers
    * Liz Davies, Iraq Occupation Focus
    * Marion Birch, Medact
    * Milan Rai, Justice Not Vengeance / Peace News
    * Sarah Parker, Coalition to Stop Deportations to Iraq

11.00-17.00, Saturday 19 July 2008
United Reformed Church
Buck Street, Camden (close to Camden Town tube)
London NW1 8NJ

Entry by donation (suggested amount: =A37/=A35 unwaged)

http://www.iraqoccupationfocus.org.uk/