[JNV] Events and Latest Iraq Opinion Polls

[JNV]

Dear friends

Please find below our events listings and a comment on the opinion polls published in the last two days.

We hope you find them useful.

Best wishes

Maya Evans
Emily Johns
Milan Rai

***

EVENTS

Mon 19 March AROUND THE WORLD Global Day of Action Against the "war on Terror" on the 4th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. To find out what's happening in Britain on today see <http://m19wiki.pbwiki.com>

Tues 20 March LONDON Stop the War Coalition "PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY- The debate Parliament won't have" 2-8pm, Westminster Central Hall, London SW1. To register tel 020 7278 6694 or e-mail office@stopwar.org.uk (delegates £7, individuals £5). For more info see <www.stopwar.org.uk>

Thurs 22 March- Sat 24 May LONDON Haldane Society Human Rights Lectures.
All lectures: 6.30pm, London South Bank University Keyworth Centre, Keyworth Street, London SE1 (tube: Elephant and castle, see http://tinyurl.com/2cud7g for map). Entrance free:
-Thurs 22 Mar: 'Israel, Palestine and Human Rights' with Daniel Machover and Hannah Rought-Brookes
-Thurs 26 Apr: 'Northern Ireland, human rights and the democracy deficit' with Professor Conor Gearty
-Thurs 24 May: 'Guantanamo Bay - close it down' with Moazzam Begg and Sadat Sayeed.

Sat 24 March LONDON 'Hands Off Iraq' teach-in With- Greg Muttitt from PLATFORM (author 'Crude Designs: The rip-off of Iraq's oil wealth') Ewa Jasiewicz from Naftana (UK Support Committee for the General Union of Oil Employees). Find out more about the new law, the companies involved, and the US and UK Governments' roles in this smash and grab law. Make plans to take action to stop British companies from joining the race to carve up Iraq's oil wealth. www.HandsOffIraqiOil.org. Supported by- Corporate Watch, Iraq Occupation Focus, Jubilee Iraq, Naftana, Platform, Voices UK and War on Want.Union Chapel, Compton Ave, London N1 Tube- Highbury and Islington, Map <http://tinyurl.com/22y2lc

Monday 26th March NATIONAL ID-Day, , and in the days leading up to it, NO2ID groups will be holding actions and events all over the UK. Pledged not to comply with ID cards. Opt out of NHS 'spine' via http://www.TheBigOptOut.org and leaflets in GP surgeries. Join the 'send a digital photo of your face campaign' see <http://www.no2id.net/

Wed 28 March NORWICH Public Meeting with TONY BENN and Mell Harrison (Eastern Region Co-ordinator CND) 7pm, The Greenhouse, Bethel Street.£5 / £3. 01603 628337

Sat 31 March LONDON 'National Rally' for John MacDonnell MP Contender for the leadership of the Labour Party with a strong anti war policy. Q&A session, Music and Comedy 12-4 at the Shaw Theatre, Euston road, London More details <info@john4leader.org.uk>

April WALES Drawing paradise on the "Axis of Evil" Exhibitions and talks on Iran by artist and JNV activist EMILY JOHNS (support act: MILAN RAI) (see http://tinyurl.com/j7gmf).

Exhibitions:
Mon 2- Fri 13 Apr TENBY 10am- 5pm, Mon- Sat (closed Sun), Little Wedlock Gallery, Gumfreston, SA70 8RB (www.littlewedlockgallery.co.uk)
Sat 14- Fri 27 Apr NARBETH Span Arts, Town Moor, Moorfield Road, SA67 7AG. Contact 01834 869 323 for times.
Sat 28 Apr- Fri 4 May MILFORD HAVEN Friends Meeting House Priory Road Contact 01646 651766 for times.

Talks:
Mon 2 Apr TENBY 7.30pm St Johns Church.
Tues 3 Apr MILFORD HAVEN 7.30pm Friends Meeting House Priory Rd.
Wed 4 Apr ST DAVIDS 7.30pm For time and venue ring 0845 458 9572.
Thurs 5 Apr NARBETH 7pm, Span Arts, Moorfield Road, SA67 7AG.
For more info see www.j-n-v.org or call 0845 458 9571.

SAT 7 April - Sat 21 April NATIONAL Vanunu Freedom (cycle) fride from FASLANCE TRIDENT SUBMARINE BASE to the ISRAELI EMBASSY. Contact 0207 607 2302 for more info.

Tues 10 April LONDON Trial of JNV peace activists MAYA EVANS and MILAN RAI, charged with organising and / or participating in an "unauthorised" demonstration within 1km of Parliament during last October's "No More Fallujahs" anti-occupation camp in Parliament Square. 2pm, Horseferry Magistrates Court, 70 Horseferry Road, SW1P 2AX. We'd really appreciate your support.

Tues 10 APR, ALDERMASTON: MASS NONVIOLENT BLOCKADE OF BRITAIN'S ATOMIC WEAPONS ESTABLISHMENT. See www.tridentploughshares.org/aldermaston

11 - 17 ARPIL, LONDON: BIRDS OF WAR: HAWKS, DOVES AND ILLEGAL EAGLES. Exhibition of contemporary, visual artwork to mark the fourth anniversary of the Iraq invasion. A unique opportunity to view a dynamic collaboration between British and Iraqi artists. Times: Mon - Fri, 10am - 5pm; Sat - Sun, 10am - 4pm. Venue: Candid Arts Trust, 3 Torrens St, Islington, EC1V 1NQ. Admission Free. See www.birdsofwar.org

13-14 APR, LONDON: "PEACE HISTORY": ENCOURAGEMENT AND WARNINGS. Two-day non-residential conference at the Imperial War Museum, Lambeth Road, London SE1. Organised by the International Peace Bureau and the Movement for the Abolition of War. See www.abolishwar.org.uk.

APR - JUL, LONDON: 'BLOODY TERRORISTS' - TERRORISM IN CONTEXT.
A series of public lectures chaired by Professor Ziauddin Sardar (School of Arts, The City University). All lectures: 6 - 8pm, Oliver Merton Hall, The City University, Northampton Square, EC1V 0HB.
- 25 Apr: 'Where Do Terrorists Come From?' by Milan Rai (Director, Justice Not Vengeance, and author of 7/7: The London Bombings, Islam and the Iraq War)
- 9 May: 'Wretched Earth: Terrorism, Wretchedness and Political Philosophy' by Professor Ted Honderich (University College, London
- 23 May: 'Terrorism and Islam: The British Muslim Experience' by Yahya Birt, (Director, City Circle and Research Fellow, Islamic Foundation)
- 6 Jun: 'Martyrs of Postculture: Analysing the Terrorist' by Dr Richard Appignanesi (Associate Editor, Third Text)
- 20 Jun: 'Reporting Terror: How the Media Covers Terrorism' by Professor Adrian Monck (Department of Journalism, The City University)
- 4 Jul: 'Cultural Terrorism and Terrorism of Culture' by Ms Merryl Wyn Davies (anthropologist and writer, co-author of "Why Do People Hate America?" and "American Dream, Global Nightmare")

1 MAY - 2 JUN, LONDON: "FALLUJAH" PLAY written and directed by Jonathan Holmes. Based on research and interviews carried out by the Oxford Research Group, "Fallujah" presents verbatim testimony from those at the heart of the US siege of the city. Times: Mon-Sat, 7.30pm; Wed & Sat 3pm. Venue: The Atlantic Building, The Old Truman Brewery, 146 Brick Lane, E1 6RU. Tickets £20 / £18. Book now on 0207 930 3647 or via www.ica.org.uk. See www.fallujah.co.uk for more info.

14 MAY, BRISTOL: SECOND TRIAL OF TOBY OLDITCH AND PHIL PRITCHARD, two peace activists who entered RAF Fairford and attempted to disarm USAF B-52 bombers on 18th March 2003 (their first trial resulted in a hung jury). 10am, Bristol Crown Court, The Law Courts, Small Street, BS1 1DA. Support welcome: the trial is scheduled to last for several days. For background info on the trial see www.b52two.org

14 MAY, LONDON: BOOK LAUNCH OF 'IRAQI WOMEN' BY NADJE SADIG AL-ALI. 'An extraordinary book ... Particularly sobering is the author's balanced and sensitive analysis of the negative effects on women's rights and lives of the decade of sanctions and the current US-British occupation' - Lila Abu-Lughod, Professor of Anthropology and Gender Studies, Columbia University. 5.30 - 8pm, Khalili Theatre, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WC1.

2 JUN, EASTBOURNE: PEACEMAKING IN PALESTINE. Talk by John Lynes (Christian Peacemaker Teams). michael3col@yahoo.co.uk or 01323 430040.

11 SEPT, LONDON: DISARM DSEI. Day of action outside Britain's biggest arms fair. See www.dsei.org



POLLS FROM IRAQ

There are two new polls out to mark the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq.

The ORB poll had one surprising and notable result, useful in arguing for an end to the occupation. The BBC poll again confirmed the complexity of Iraqi attitudes towards the occupation, while demonstrating a definite hardening of Iraqi attitudes towards the occupation forces

***

1) ORB poll

Q2. And thinking ahead, do you believe that the security situation in Iraq will get better or worse in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces?

Four answers were possible: 'a great deal better', 'a little better', 'a little worse' and 'a great deal worse'.

Only 11 per cent of respondents said things would get 'a great deal worse'. In Anbar province, no respondent said it would get worse - either 'a little' or 'a great deal worse'. 29 per cent of all respondents said things would get 'a great deal better', and 24 per cent said it would get 'a little better'. So 53 per cent were optimistic about the first few weeks after withdrawal, twice as many as thought things would get worse (26 per cent in total).

6 per cent said things would stay the same, and 12 per cent didn't know, or refused to answer.

A representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults was surveyed in every governorate in Iraq by the ORB polling organization between 10–22 February 2007. The poll results can be found at <http://tinyurl.com/369wbr>.

***

2) BBC poll

On the one hand, only 35 per cent of Iraqis polled believed the US/UK forces should 'leave now' (though this was up from 26 per cent in 2005), and a majority thought they should stay until 'security is restored' (38 per cent), 'the Iraqi government is stronger' (14 per cent) or until 'the Iraqi security forces can operate independently' (11 per cent).

So, in this poll, more Iraqis supported the official UK/US line ('stay until security is restored') than supported the 'leave now' option. It could be argued that all three answers (security better, Iraqi government stronger, Iraqi security forces operating independently) conform to UK/US propaganda about the justifications for occupation, which would mean 63 per cent of respondents supported the UK/US position on continuing the occupation for the time being.

On the other hand, the poll demonstrated a deepening hostility to the occupation forces, with a majority thinking the US, and not the Iraqi government, was in control of Iraq (59 per cent up from 24 per cent in 2004); 76 per cent thinking the occupation forces were doing a 'bad job' (up from 59 per cent just last year); and 78 per cent somewhat or strongly opposing the US-led forces (up from 65 per cent in 2005). 49 per cent of those polled thought bringing more US troops into Baghdad and Anbar province would make things there 'worse', while only 29 per cent thought it would improve matters.

As in 2005, more Iraqis think the invasion of Iraq was wrong (53 per cent) than now think it was right (47 per cent).

The most dramatic change in the poll results is that the acceptability of attacking the occupation forces has tripled from 17 per cent (2004) to 51 per cent (2007).

More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq by D3 Systems between 25 February and 5 March 2007. The poll results are available from <http://tinyurl.com/3bb58z>

***

Some BBC poll questions:

Q23 Who do you think currently controls things in our country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, somebody else, or no one?

Iraqi Government:
34 per cent (2007) 44 per cent (2005)
United States:
59 per cent (2007) 24 per cent (2005)

Q24 Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the United States and other Coalition forces have carried out their responsibilities in Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job?

A Very Good Job:
6 per cent (2007) 10 per cent (2006)
Quite a Good Job:
18 per cent (2007) 27 per cent (2006)
Quite a Bad Job:
30 per cent (2007) 19 per cent (2006)
A Very Bad Job:
46 per cent (2007) 40 per cent (2006)
Refused/don’t know:
- per cent (2007)  5 per cent (2006)

Q25 Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq?

Strongly Support:
6 per cent (2007) 13 per cent (2005) 13 per cent (2004)
Somewhat Support:
16 per cent (2007) 19 per cent (2005) 26 per cent (2004)
Somewhat Oppose:
32 per cent (2007) 21 per cent (2005) 20 per cent (2004)
Strongly Oppose:
46 per cent (2007) 44 per cent (2005) 31 per cent (2004)
Refused/don’t know:
- per cent (2007) 3 per cent (2005) 10 per cent (2004)

Q26 Do you think that bringing more US forces into Baghdad and Anbar will make security in these areas better, worse, or have no effect on the security situation in these areas?

Better: 29 per cent
Worse: 49 per cent
No Effect: 22 per cent
Refused/don’t know: - per cent